2014 07 18 – Planes: Fire & Rescue, Sex Tape, The Purge: Anarchy

For past four weekend I've scored 5 out of 8 movies in 10 per cent bracket, including two blockbusters. I'm particularly proud of those two scores, because my movie taste is atypical (Support Your Local Sheriff from 1969 is one of my beloved ones). I came up with numbers for Transformers and Apes in a 100 per cent logic way, taking into account previous installments and this year's overall market. I didn't see them, and I'm not going to, ever.

Most of fellow predicters scored too. It certainly felt good being one of the group. But this weekend will put that to an end, one way or another. All three openings are horrible in terms of cinematic and marketing propositions. They don't deserve people's money. They will get them, but I don't want those numbers to be as high as other predicters shoot.

This weekend we have three openings.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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WHAT'S COMING OUT FROM MOVIEMAKERS'S DRAWER NEXT: BOATS, TANKS, TRAINS? OR A NAUGHTY MAGAZINE?

This movie, Planes: Fire & Rescue, is an adventure PG movie, from Walt Disney.

I think this movie is the most legitimized one in terms of getting money. It it of course a perverse course of action, because getting money out of kids' and kids' parents' pockets means to take advantage of human beings with less developed brain. No one in his/her right mind would steal a candy from a hand of crippled kid and run away in a taunting slow motion, wouldn't he/she? But entertainment industry seems to have a power to suspend any human compassion and shame. Maybe concept of the Purge is not a fantasy, but a sour metaphor?

The previous Planes was a cheap shot at money, you can read the full story on any other movie predictions site. I go straight to numbers.

Five weekends before the opening of Planes, there was an opening of Despicable Me 2, with $ 20,895 per theater.
Four weekends before: Turbo, with $ 5600 per theater.
Two weekends before: The Smurfs 2, with $ 4539 per theater.
Finally, Planes, in 3702 theaters, and earned $ 6005 per theater.

This year, seven weekends ago, there was Maleficent, with $ 17,586 per theater.
Five weekends ago: How to Train Your Dragon 2, with $ 11,627 per theater.
Three weekends ago: Transformers 4, with $ 23,633 per theater.
Two weekends ago: Earth to Echo, with $ 2590 per theater.

The point is this movie is not a hit. Most people know it. Not many people save money to see it. It may reach $ 6300-6600 per theater level, but it's a ceiling scratching.

Shots:

$ 29,7 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 28 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 26 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24,61 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3826 theaters, $ 6432 per theater)
$ 24 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22,4 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 22 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 21,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 17,51 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3826 theaters, $ 4576 per theater)

$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

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I'M BETTING $5 PRODUCERS THINK THEY FUNDED REAL SEX TAPE OF CAMERON DIAZ

This movie, Sex Tape, is a comedy R movie, from Sony.

Historically, Sony makes a $ 6000 per theater comedies R-rated. If it gets a hit over $ 10,000 per theater (like 21 Jump Street, or Bad Teacher), those movies still feel like a PG-13 -- or they involve mocking a school system. I haven't decided yet.

However, this time it is not about school, nor about subject PG-13s know about (tapes and stuff). This time Cameron doesn't have a Justin Timberlake character to walk around. It is full time a Jason Segel's character, a clumsy life failure, who is cheaper than breast implant surgery. I go with low shot. And wave goodbye to fellow shooters.

Shots:

$ 28 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 27 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 26 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 26 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 24,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 24 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 23 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 23 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 22 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 16,87 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3062 theaters, $ 5511 per theater)
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$ 14,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3062 theaters, $ 4771 per theater)

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ANOTHER CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF MISUNDERSTANDING WHAT MAKES A MOVIE SUCCESSFUL 

This movie, The Purge: Anarchy, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Universal.

In life, there is a factor of new, that makes things better when we experience them for the first time. There is also a factor of experience, that makes things better when we experience them the next, and next, and next time.

Movie producers can get lucky to touch the first one. But getting the second one never involves luck. It takes to know what good writing is and how to repeat it. The Matrix is the perfect, ever-green example. Whole Nine Yards is another (I told you my movie taste is atypical). The Purge joins these two with no sense of shame or degradation.

The first movie was a thriller based on unusual concept of the Purge, with tension created by limited space, nailed by smart promotional posters. This one feels like a typical kill-them-all, without Charles Bronson's 1960's porn industry moustache. If instead of not that widely known actor, the lead character was played by Sylvester Stallone or Arnold Schwarzenegger, I'd go with $ 2300 per theater without hesitation, as these gentlemen's movies achieved last and this year. But without worn stars, this movie can fool some people to watch it. Not too many, because I think highly of horror/thriller fans' intelligence. Maybe enough to get a $ 3500-4500 per theater level. Not higher.

Goodbye, one more time, for group hugs on Monday afternoon.

Shots:

$ 36 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 33 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 33 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
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$ 30 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 30 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 29,82 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2805 theaters, $ 10,630 per theater)
$ 29,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 28 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 28 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 24 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 12,14 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2805 theaters, $ 4327 per theater)

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