2014 06 27 – Transformers: Age of Extinction

A weekend like the previous one leaves me scratching my head in confusion. I've got Think Like a Man Too perfectly, with just $ 35 per theater difference. The most plausible reason is I am that movie's audience. I like the first installment, I know why it is enjoyable, where its value for viewers comes from. I see that value is absent in the trailer. Then I got the numbers (no pun towards that site intended) right. I didn't do it completely conscious. I'm not sure why I lowered it by the exact number I did, but I have another movie to analyze and to discover all true reasons.

This weekend's movie doesn't look to be fitting my taste, but for me the fun is in thinking about shooting, not getting it right.

This weekend we have one massive opening.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official number!

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WELCOME TO A FOURTH LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS: THE AMOUNT OF CRAP IN UNIVERSE MUST BE PRESERVED

This movie, Transformers: Age of Extinction, is an action PG-13 movie, from Paramount.

Getting Mark Wahlberg as a lead man, instead of a lead boy by Shia LaBoeuf, was a smart move. It changed the movie from a kid's pile of explosions to an action drama. However, changing Optimus Prime from a wise leader into a bearded version of Hannibal of The A-Team made it even, if not added another layer of crap in the universe.

Does anyone really care about indestructible robots? Their extinction? Human race during conflict on such a scale is a mere cannon fodder, a background trick that a lousy writers and directors try to play at us. Hoping abstract "destruction of a city" will evoke emotions and commitment. It does not. We enjoy destruction of cities (Godzilla!), because it is a symbol of our rat race lives. We hate them, and watching it crumble liberates us, if only for a brief moment.

Trying to look at it as a fan of the franchise, there is all it needs to be. We are provided with new robots, new paintings, new adversaries. Explosions are good. The previous movie, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, opened with $ 97,85 mln, $ 23,937 per every of 4088 theaters. This one gets more theaters, but its per theater number may be lower. That makes the final number similar.

Shots:

$ 120 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 112 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 107 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 104 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 103,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 101 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 100,04 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (4233 theaters, $ 23,633 per theater)

$ 100 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 99 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 96 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 95,30 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (4233 theaters, $ 22,513 per theater)
$ 93 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 80 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

ScreenCrave has stopped publishing at all, not just box office predictions. I emailed Damon Houx to find out if he continues shooting. If I get some info from him, I will post his shot during the weekend.

Gitesh Pandya's site, BoxOfficeGuru.com, has some tech problems for quite a while. Gitesh didn't put anything on his Twitter as well. If I get some info from him...

UPDATE: Good thing, Google can translate pages even if they don't show in a normal way. I got Gitesh's shot of $ 104 mln.

Perri Nemiroff, of Shockya, stays in the same situation. If I get some info from her...

UPDATE: Perri confirmed by email she didn't shot this weekend.

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2014 06 20 – Jersey Boys, Think Like a Man Too

Everybody wait for Transformers 4, so nobody really cares about last weekend's openings, nor for this weekend's predictions. Let's do it fast, then.

This weekend we have two openings.

SATURDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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THERE ARE FOUR JUST LIKE THAT, BEHIND A ALCOHOL SHOP NEAR ME

This movie, Jersey Boys, is a musical R movie, from Warner Bros.

Mamma Mia, Les Miserables, aside, musical is one of genres that belongs in the movie industry's attic. If anyone wants to see one, goes to the real theater.

Shots:

$ 15,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 14 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 14 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13,32 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2905 theaters, $ 4585 per theater)
$ 12 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 12 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 11,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 11 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 9,59 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2905 theaters, $ 3300 per theater)
$ 5 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, didn't post their shots this weekend.

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A SEQUELITIS IN ITS PRIME

This movie, Think Like a Man Too, is a romantic comedy R movie, from Sony.

I loved the first movie. It was great fun, watching a few very different couples getting together. But you know, sequelitis is a serious illness. It strikes makers of all sorts. If it does, they forget all important ingredients that made the first part wonderful. In the name of money they shove it aside, deep in their silk ladden mahogany drawers they bought for the dough they made from the first movie. People don't learn to know good movies from bad movies, so many will go see it. Maybe a bit more than About Last Night.

Shots:

$ 46,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 45 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 38,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 38 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 37,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 36,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 36 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 35 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 34 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 29,32 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2225 theaters, $ 13,177 per theater)

$ 29,24 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2225 theaters, $ 13,142 per theater)
$ 27 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, didn't post their shots this weekend.

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2014 06 13 – 22 Jump Street, How to Train Your Dragon 2

Are Americans cultural racists? Or can't they simply appreciate movies and need to be spoonfed with advertising what movies are good? I loved last weekend's opening of The Fault in Our Stars, it was phenomenal. But in a parallel theater room Edge of Tomorrow was doing worse than it should. The movie is fantastic, I've seen it, action is strong but light, comic one-liners are well placed. Shame, it was based on a manga book (manga was from Japan), and Americans seemed to have not stomach for imports. Boo to them.

This is another weekend of two strong movies.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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A THERAPY FOR SELF ESTEEM, YET ANOTHER

This movie, 22 Jump Street, is a comedy R movie, from Sony.

I don't understand an admiration people hold for school days. I get it was fun and little responsibility. But it was also little money, parenting guidance, peer pressure, lack of skill with girls. The point is in dreaming what could have been, fantasizing about unreachable girls or school teachers. It can be a therapy, if only there were made any conclusions and lasting resolutions. Or just some quick kissing at the showers.

My point is this is a fluff entertainment. Just like The Amazing Spider-Man 2, just like 300: Rise of an Empire, Maleficent, Noah. It can be fun at the movies, but holds no value, makes no growth, stirs no thought. A cinema fast-food. Eat. Digest. Out. And do it fast. I don't get that thing, so my prediction is lower than other shooters.

Shots:

$ 65 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 62 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 60 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 58,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 58 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 57,07 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3306 theaters, $ 17,263 per theater)
$ 55 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 53,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 53 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 52 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 52 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
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$ 49 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 45 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 45 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 41,48 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3306 theaters, $ 12,547 per theater)

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A TALE OF THE UGLY CHILDREN 2

This movie, How to Train Your Dragon 2, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.

I love Beetlejuice, the cartoon. All of it is so beautifully twisted, but also fun, smart, and surprisingly warm (BJ really cares about Lydia).

When I see these posters, I find those characters ugly. They remind me of Digimon, an American rip-off of Pokemon. The same level of ugliness, visual unfriendliness. I don't feel it artsy, just clumsy drawing. Like they didn't care enough to finish those lines in faces. Or they are just racists, mocking Scandinavian type of appearance and face bones structure. Either way, I have no interest in this movie, though in a Vulcan part of my brain I understand its popularity and can shoot appropriately.

Shots:

$ 90 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 80 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 72 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 71,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 69,45 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (4253 theaters, $ 16,329 per theater)
$ 69 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 68,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 67 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 65,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 65 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 64 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 59 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 55 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
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$ 54 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 49,45 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (4253 theaters, $ 11,627 per theater)

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2014 06 06 – Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars

Why do I keep continue writing this blog, while my shooting isn't good? One thing is because I love to know what new movies come to theatres. I could simply go to a movie website to see OPENINGS section, but shooting is an active activity. I need to think a bit, even if my thinking is flawed.

Second thing is I am more and more conscious what movies are good and what makes them good (good doesn't implicate big openings). A story, a hero, a challenge -- I got quite good in finding them in movies, though for a better part I find only empty spaces.

These two things are the reason I'm okay with my last weekend's prediction of Maleficient. It is a horrible movie, a forgettable one as soon as you come out of a theatre room door. These two things are the reason I'm pumped for this weekend: we've got two great movies, I'm going to shoot high!

This weekend we have two openings.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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I FOUND THIS TAGLINE IN A BUDDHIST FORTUNE COOKIE

This movie, Edge of Tomorrow, is an action PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.

Emily Blunt's character looks like Cloud Strife, from the legendary game Final Fantasy VII. This is the first -- and to some people, the only -- reason they need to go to see this movie. Other fans of action movies went to see a trailer. After the first version of it, I was enchanted. A great concept, borrowed from The Groundhog Day, but uniquely twisted, filled with gears, robots, explosions, and a set of clear goals of the hero: external -- to win the war, internal -- to find out what happened to him. This combination marks great writing.

Tom Cruise looks here a perfect hit. He is showing vulnerability and humility of a rookie soldier, I didn't expect him to. Also, being a subordinate to a woman (Emily's character) also contrasts with Mr. Cruise we know from real life. It gets interesting to watch such a clash of attitudes.

Last year Tom Cruise's Oblivion (a movie now in full synchro with its title) went for $ 9795 per theater, $ 37,05 mln total. I cheer Edge of Tomorrow gets more than that. Even like $ 13,795 per theater. It is a decent summer blockbuster, not a megahit in terms of money, but a great entertainment for fans.

Shots:

$ 48,14 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3490 theaters, $ 13,795 per theater)
$ 39 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 35 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 34,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 32 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 30 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 30 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 30 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 30 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 30 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 29,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 28,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 28,76 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3490 theaters, $ 8241 per theater)
$ 28,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 25 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

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THEY ARE LYING ON AN APARTMENT'S FLOOR, BUT THEY HAVE USED A GRASS SHAMPOO

This movie, The Fault in Our Stars, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Fox.

Most dramas tend to get bloated. Their writers fall into thinking in a fixed point of emotion. That is not true: life slides on an emotion scale. There is tragedy and comedy, entwined in a single moment. There are moments of death. There are moments of love. All is fluctuating, even if everyone knows how it is going to end.

This movie can be a middle level surprise hit. I can imagine lots of girl fans of Divergent going to see this one. The theme, the tone, the message of the movie is different, of course. But two of lead actors are there, and there is love in the air. Nothing more is needed.

The Fault in Our Stars is definitely going for a high opening for dramas. It should easily get $ 8000-9000 per theater. Two years ago The Vow opened with $ 13,929. That's a bit too high for me.

Shots:

$ 49 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 48 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3173 theaters, $ 15,128 per theater)
$ 46 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 45 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 45 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 42,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 41,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 40 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 40 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 38,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 37 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 37,30 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3173 theaters, $ 11,755 per theater)

$ 35 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 35 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 33 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

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