2014 07 25 – And So It Goes, Hercules, Lucy

The title of the sponsor of last weekend is disappointment. I'm disappointed in American audience'a ability to recognize a cash con from an actual movie (The Purge: Anarchy, I'm talking about you). Sex Tape at least didn't try to hide its lack of substance. It was an honest movie. Bad, but honest.

This weekend we have three openings.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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CONTRARY TO MOVIE JOURNALISTS, I DON'T HAVE TO HIDE MY INDIFFERENCE ABOUT MOVIES

This movie, And So It Goes, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Clarius Entertainment.

I don't have any expectation for this one. It will get around $ 1500 per theater, and that's it. Let's move on with our lives.

Shots:

$ 5 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 5 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 4,64 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  ( theaters, $ 2635 per theater)
$ 4,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 4,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
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$ 3,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 3,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 3 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 2,64 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1760 theaters, $ 1500 per theater)

Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this movie.

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HOW COOL IS HAPPY MEAL WITHOUT HAPPINESS? A TOY, I MEAN, WITHOUT A TOY

This movie, Hercules, is an action PG-13 movie, from Paramount.

This is a great trying to make movie that trumps Pompeii in terms of misunderstanding what makes a movie theme interesting to people. Hercules was a demigod, a son of the most powerful of Greek gods, Zeus. He was probably the most powerful of all sons and daughters gods conceived with humans. He was so strong, that a lot of full blooded gods feared one day he come to throw them down from their godly palace. Hence monsters attempting to kill him, hence adventures, hance twelve of works, designed to kill him.

This movie doesn't touch that subject. It is about Hercules before he went for the 12 works. He was muscular, fearless, but not quite godly.

Does it sound interesting? Please, don't yawn at me. Or, yawn all you want. Just save money for the next weekend. I can guard it for you, it will be the safest money in a whole galaxy ;)

Shots:

$ 37 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 35 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
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$ 29,80 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3595 theaters, $ 8289 per theater)
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$ 24,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 24 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 24 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

$ 22,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

$ 22 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 21,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 21 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 20 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 19,13 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3595 theaters, $ 5322 per theater)

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WHEN I WAS SIX YEARS OLD, I HAD TROUBLE FITTING LETTERS BETWEEN THE LINES

This movie, Lucy, is an action R movie, from Universal.

Here is the thing: this movie could be this generation's The Matrix. Wonderful visual effects, cool heroine, a world with deep social flaws (almost no respect for human being), deadly enemies that are not humans... no, wait.

We, as the audience, cheer hero in his/her fight against the enemy. If the enemy is weak, the fight is too easy. We lose interest -- most of Superman's enemies that don't use cryptonite fall into that category. If the enemy is too strong, the fight is unfair. We lose interest -- because the hero either has to get help from lazy writers (or as ancient Greeks said, deus ex machina), or he/she resorts to cheating. Or both, as we witnessed in the latest The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

The enemy in Lucy is weak. Street gangsters, even with enhanced consciousness and abilities to shift reality, don't make the cut. It could work in an action-comedy movie (like Taxi), but this movie tries to be a real piece. Doesn't happening. Sorry, lovely Ms. Johansson.

Shots:

$ 43,88 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3172 theaters, $ 13,835 per theater)
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$ 38 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 36 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 35,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 34,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 34 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 33 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 32 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 32 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 26 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 26 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

$ 20,04 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3172 theaters, $ 6317 per theater)

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2014 07 18 – Planes: Fire & Rescue, Sex Tape, The Purge: Anarchy

For past four weekend I've scored 5 out of 8 movies in 10 per cent bracket, including two blockbusters. I'm particularly proud of those two scores, because my movie taste is atypical (Support Your Local Sheriff from 1969 is one of my beloved ones). I came up with numbers for Transformers and Apes in a 100 per cent logic way, taking into account previous installments and this year's overall market. I didn't see them, and I'm not going to, ever.

Most of fellow predicters scored too. It certainly felt good being one of the group. But this weekend will put that to an end, one way or another. All three openings are horrible in terms of cinematic and marketing propositions. They don't deserve people's money. They will get them, but I don't want those numbers to be as high as other predicters shoot.

This weekend we have three openings.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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WHAT'S COMING OUT FROM MOVIEMAKERS'S DRAWER NEXT: BOATS, TANKS, TRAINS? OR A NAUGHTY MAGAZINE?

This movie, Planes: Fire & Rescue, is an adventure PG movie, from Walt Disney.

I think this movie is the most legitimized one in terms of getting money. It it of course a perverse course of action, because getting money out of kids' and kids' parents' pockets means to take advantage of human beings with less developed brain. No one in his/her right mind would steal a candy from a hand of crippled kid and run away in a taunting slow motion, wouldn't he/she? But entertainment industry seems to have a power to suspend any human compassion and shame. Maybe concept of the Purge is not a fantasy, but a sour metaphor?

The previous Planes was a cheap shot at money, you can read the full story on any other movie predictions site. I go straight to numbers.

Five weekends before the opening of Planes, there was an opening of Despicable Me 2, with $ 20,895 per theater.
Four weekends before: Turbo, with $ 5600 per theater.
Two weekends before: The Smurfs 2, with $ 4539 per theater.
Finally, Planes, in 3702 theaters, and earned $ 6005 per theater.

This year, seven weekends ago, there was Maleficent, with $ 17,586 per theater.
Five weekends ago: How to Train Your Dragon 2, with $ 11,627 per theater.
Three weekends ago: Transformers 4, with $ 23,633 per theater.
Two weekends ago: Earth to Echo, with $ 2590 per theater.

The point is this movie is not a hit. Most people know it. Not many people save money to see it. It may reach $ 6300-6600 per theater level, but it's a ceiling scratching.

Shots:

$ 29,7 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 28 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 26 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24,61 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3826 theaters, $ 6432 per theater)
$ 24 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22,4 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 22 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 21,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 17,51 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3826 theaters, $ 4576 per theater)

$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

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I'M BETTING $5 PRODUCERS THINK THEY FUNDED REAL SEX TAPE OF CAMERON DIAZ

This movie, Sex Tape, is a comedy R movie, from Sony.

Historically, Sony makes a $ 6000 per theater comedies R-rated. If it gets a hit over $ 10,000 per theater (like 21 Jump Street, or Bad Teacher), those movies still feel like a PG-13 -- or they involve mocking a school system. I haven't decided yet.

However, this time it is not about school, nor about subject PG-13s know about (tapes and stuff). This time Cameron doesn't have a Justin Timberlake character to walk around. It is full time a Jason Segel's character, a clumsy life failure, who is cheaper than breast implant surgery. I go with low shot. And wave goodbye to fellow shooters.

Shots:

$ 28 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 27 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 26 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 26 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 24,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 24 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 23 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 23 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 22 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 16,87 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3062 theaters, $ 5511 per theater)
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$ 14,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3062 theaters, $ 4771 per theater)

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ANOTHER CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF MISUNDERSTANDING WHAT MAKES A MOVIE SUCCESSFUL 

This movie, The Purge: Anarchy, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Universal.

In life, there is a factor of new, that makes things better when we experience them for the first time. There is also a factor of experience, that makes things better when we experience them the next, and next, and next time.

Movie producers can get lucky to touch the first one. But getting the second one never involves luck. It takes to know what good writing is and how to repeat it. The Matrix is the perfect, ever-green example. Whole Nine Yards is another (I told you my movie taste is atypical). The Purge joins these two with no sense of shame or degradation.

The first movie was a thriller based on unusual concept of the Purge, with tension created by limited space, nailed by smart promotional posters. This one feels like a typical kill-them-all, without Charles Bronson's 1960's porn industry moustache. If instead of not that widely known actor, the lead character was played by Sylvester Stallone or Arnold Schwarzenegger, I'd go with $ 2300 per theater without hesitation, as these gentlemen's movies achieved last and this year. But without worn stars, this movie can fool some people to watch it. Not too many, because I think highly of horror/thriller fans' intelligence. Maybe enough to get a $ 3500-4500 per theater level. Not higher.

Goodbye, one more time, for group hugs on Monday afternoon.

Shots:

$ 36 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 33 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 33 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
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$ 30 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 30 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 29,82 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2805 theaters, $ 10,630 per theater)
$ 29,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 28 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 28 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 24 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 12,14 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2805 theaters, $ 4327 per theater)

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2014 07 11 – Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Last three weekends turned out surprisingly good for me. I scored four times, including another blockbuster: Transformers (Godzilla was my first one this year). I'm still behind other shooters in this year's movie roster, but I'm not losing more.

This weekend we have one opening.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official number!

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A TROUBLE WITH INTERPRETATION: WHAT NATION OF THE WORLD IS REPRESENTED BY KILLER MONKEYS?

This movie, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Fox.

If you look closely, the world is much safer place than 10 years ago. Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussain, Col. Gaddafi: all gone. Fidel Castro has hidden himself in shadows. North Korea also sits quiet. What nation is represented by killer monkeys then? Europe? Russia? Really confusing.

Or maybe the time has come to look for a psychological explanation: a wild human nature, that is being confined by cultural rules, punishments, awards? Though, it is a weak explanation, not motivating to go to theaters. Certainly, not in measures of Transformers nor Godzilla.

Both these movies opened with a bit over $ 23,000 per theater. This is a number Apes can only dream of. The previous installment managed to gather just $ 15,024 per theater (it opened on August 5th). Even getting into consideration good reviews and expectations, there is no way this one could rise to $ 20,000 per theater. I shoot for $ 18,792 per theater.

Shots:

$ 75 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 74,55 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3967 theaters, $ 18,792 per theater)
$ 73,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 72,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3967 theaters, $ 18,304 per theater)
$ 70 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 69 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 69 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 68 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 67 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 64 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 62 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 60 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 50 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

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2014 07 04 – America, Deliver Us from Evil, Earth to Echo, Tummy

At last: I have shot a blockbuster right. That's all for this weekend's intro to a shooting exercise.

This weekend we have four openings.

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

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'STEAD PROPAGANDA, MAKE PROPER GANJA

This movie, America, is a documentary PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.

At the start of the trailer, I thought it was something related to The Purge. I was eager to see violence, fire, destruction on streets. Nothing happened.

I was also disappointed, because a disappearing of America was not explained. Why did it happen? Was it Godzilla? Faceless and disjointed threat from the East? The Russian bear finally roared? Or maybe people of the West finally collapsed under heavy of their sins and stomachs brimmed with hamburgers? This movie looks like a typical homework for psychology course students: not applicable in real life, as well as throwing out of a window any logic. Why? Because it is a curious self-denying reference: if there was no America, then this movie wouldn't be made.

Maybe creators, instead of making movies filled with illogical propaganda, should relax, travel to a few selected states and legally smoke some 'nja?That would be a better use of time for them and for us.

Shots:

$ 7 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 5,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 3,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 3,1 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 3 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 3 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 2,74 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1105 theaters, $ 2483 per theater)

$ 2,65 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1105 theaters, $ 2400 per theater)

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ERIC BANA HAS BEEN NOMINATED THIS YEAR FOR A BEN AFFLECK'S TROPHY FOR THE MOST WOODEN PERFORMANCE ON SCREEN
(in two weeks I'll reveal an actress with a similar nomination)

This movie, Deliver Us from Evil, is a horror R movie, from Sony.

This is the second horror movie this year that winks at an audience speaking Spanish or Portuguese. This move saved Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones from being a total disaster at box office. It should help here as well. $ 6503 per theater of Paranormal is out of the question. There are almost any new scares, also Eric Bana's efforts to emulate Ben Affleck finally pay off. Watch out, because splinters do fly.

Shots:

$ 21,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 19 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 18,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 18,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 17 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 13 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 12,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 12 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 9,74 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3045 theaters, $ 3195 per theater)
$ 9,37 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3045 theaters, $ 3077 per theater)

Shot for 5 days:

$ 25 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
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$ 15,25 mln  --  the officlal 5-day weekend number of the movie

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A MOBILE GENERATION'S E.T. OPENED LAST WEEKEND

This movie, Earth to Echo, is an adventure PG movie, from Relativity.

I looked at previous years's numbers. Relativity looks like a movie studio/distributor that is used to -- and probably comfortable financially -- openings of $ 4000 per theater. This movie won't make that money. The reason is simple: kids these days don't fall for PG movies with aliens from space. They need visual stimulants: sharp edges and fire explosions. A family E.T.-like movie is out of date. Or just for 4- and 5-year olds, who are simply too young to embrace with their tiny minds how awesome Optimus Prime is.

Shots:

$ 16 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 16 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 14 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 13 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 13 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 12 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11,02 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3230 theaters, $ 3411 per theater)
$ 11 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 10,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 8,37 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3230 theaters, $ 2590 per theater)

Shot for 5 days:

$ 21 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
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$ 13,57 mln  --  the official 5-day weekend number of the movie

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A CRAP IN A GOLDEN TIN FOIL DOESN'T SMELL OR TASTE LIKE CHOCOLATE

This movie, Tammy, is an action PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.

The quote I used above is one of great life lessons for everyone, everywhere, everytime. If you want to make people feel like crap about themselves, break it. If you hold any respect for a mate from the prison Earth, don't do that.

The movie itself feels like an amateurish attempt to film a particulary low day of a person who believes she is funny. She does things she watched in tv funny persons do. But it doesn't work. There is no surprise, no contrast, no real depth in presumed jokes. The trailer didn't evoke in me any ounce of sympathy for a lead character.

But box office lives by its own rules. People pay money to be fooled, over and over, without learning any respect for their hard earned dailies (or for themselves, but I think this is a lost cause). Tammy will get a nice opening, but it doesn't deserve it at all. If you have nothing to do for two hours, go to a river and watch water flows. A much better way to relax.

Shots:

$ 27,7 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 25,58 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3465 theaters, $ 7382 per theater)

$ 25 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 25 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

$ 24,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 23 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 22,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 21,58 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3465 theaters, $  per theater)
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$ 19 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

Shot for 5 days:

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$ 33,31 mln  --  the official 5-day weekend number of the movie
$ 31 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
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