2014 04 25 – Brick Mansions, The Other Woman, The Quiet Ones

Transcendence failed a lot of people.A measly opening of $ 10 mln total puts into perspective Johnny Depp's star power and a power of choosing right movie background. Last weekend, a year ago, Tom Cruise's crapfest Oblivion opened at $ 37,05 mln. It wasn't the summer sucker season, but people got fooled by sci-fi landscapes. Transcendence played modern motifs, at modern high-tech environment, and got punished badly for that.

I write about that because a similar case will be made this weekend. A similar, not copy-exact, because you can't really compete with a dead actor.

This weekend we have three openings.

FRIDAY:  My shots per theater!

and

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

HE'S FAST, HE'S FURIOUS, BUT WITHOUT VIN DIESEL'S MUSCLES WON'T BREAK $ 10,000 PER THEATER

This movie, Brick Mansions, is an action PG-13 movie, from Relativity.

This movie holds almost every ingredients for a nice hit.

Past numbers show a potential of $ 40-50 mln total opening of all this weekend's movies. Since two other movies are not interesting, all focus should be placed here.

Action PG-13 movies make good money this year. The lowest opening was Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit's $ 4562 per theater. Brick Mansions doesn't open at that much theaters, but will easily go above mentioned movie.

Why? Because Paul Walker isn't with us anymore. This is the last movie he wrapped up. The story is dynamic, characters know some crazy acrobatics, are able to shoot, and to drive fast. The only reason it will not be a monster hit is a lack of really big star like Vin Diesel. Most fans of Fast & Furious franchise will definitely go see this movie.

Shots:

$ 22,95 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2647 theaters, $ 8671 per theater)
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 10,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 9,52 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2647 theaters, $ 3595 per theater)
$ 9,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,2 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 7,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier, didn't post a shot for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------

THREE BLONDES WALK INTO A BAR...

This movie, The Other Woman, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Fox.

I don't find anything funny in this movie.

Around it, I manage to do. Like thinking if it is an evolution or downgrade for Cameron Diaz to star in a movie with two other blondes. In Charlie's Angels she was the only one. Here she is just one of three. Ok, it is a devolution, then.

If The Single Moms Club, a much better movie, earned only $ 4259 per theater, this one should make less.

Shots:

$ 24,77 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3205 theaters, $ 7727 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 20 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 19 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 18,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 17,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 17 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 16,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 16,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 14 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 13,5 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

$ 11,5 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3205 theaters, $ 3588 per theater)

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't post a shot for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------

THE YAWNING ONES

This movie, The Quiet Ones, is a horror PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.

There is no need to say much about it. It's late by at least one and a half year. It may be a bit better than Devil's Due (due to based-on-facts selling point), but I hope it won't pass Oculus's $ 4534 per theater. It would be a bad example for a horror genre.

Shots:

$ 14 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 7,6 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 7,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7,1 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2027 theaters, $ 3501 per theater)
$ 6,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 6 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 6 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 4,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
-----------------------------------------------
$ 3,88 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2027 theaters, $ 1914 per theater)

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't post a shot for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------
  
  

2014 04 18 – A Haunted House 2, Bears, Heaven is for Real, Transcendence

Nothing exciting happened last weekend. Except Ray Subers from BoxOfficeMojo has hit a perfect weekend: all three opening inside 10 per cent brackets. Good job!

So far, Captain America 2 aside, emovies of this year feel forced, underdeveloped, marketed beyond their scope. Too little marketed -- Non-Stop, The Single Moms Club, last weekend's Oculus. Too much marketed: 300 2, Noah, The Amazing Spider-Man 2... wait, we are three weekend from Spidey's opening, right? I'm already tired by this movie.

This weekend we have four openings.

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

A PLURAL OF HOUSE IS HOUSES, NOT HOUSE 2, #FALLOFEDUCATION

This movie, A Haunted House 2, is a comedy R movie, from Open Road.

The first installment opened with $8380 per theater. There is no way this one will repeat such a number. It's another movie that feels forced. For comedies, it is essentially a death note.

Still, some people will show up in theaters, simply because there is nothing else for audience made of groups of male teens that just hit puberty.

Shots:

$ 16,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15,6 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 14 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 14 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 13,61 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2310 theaters, $ 5891 per theater)
$ 13,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 13,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 13 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave

$ 13 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

$ 11,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 11 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9,8 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,84 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2310 theaters, $ 3829 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

IT WOULD BE A COMEDY OF THE YEAR, IF MARLON WAYANS MADE SUBTITLES FOR IT

This movie, Bears, is a documentary PG movie, from Walt Disney.

With Rio 2 taking its sophomore weekend in theaters, I don't see this movie making big money. Colorful birds vs brown bears? Come on, the choice is clear. Animated animals are way funnier for kids, because they talk. Real animals just growl at each other. You can't subtitle it sufficient enough.

Shots:

$ 11,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 7,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7,4 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 7 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 6,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6 mln  --  Box Office team
-----------------------------------------------

$ 5,08 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1720 theaters, $ 2955 per theater)

$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

$ 4,78 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1720 theaters, $ 2777 per theater)

Damon Houx, of ScreenCrave, Andy Burns, of BiffBamPop, ThisIsNotMyName, of BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post their shots for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------

IF YOU WANT TO WATCH THIS MOVIE, YOU NEED TO BRING A TV FROM HOME

This movie, Heaven is for Real, is a drama PG movie, from Sony.

This movie screams 'I was made for TV'. If you want to enjoy it the way producers intended, you need to bring a TV with you. Or watch it on your phone: a small, badly lit screen should provide enough of the claustrophobia effect. Or wait two weeks. By then, it will fall out of theaters and some TV company will buy rights to show it on Tuesday/Wednesday evening.

Shots:

$ 22,52 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2417 theaters, $ 9318 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 17 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 17 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 16 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 15,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 15,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 15 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

$ 14 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 7,52 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2417 theaters, $ 3112 per theater)

$ 17 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier  (Wednesday-Sunday)

-----------------------------------------------
  
  

IT'S NOT A HIGHER STATE OF CONSCIOUSNESS, IT'S A BAD CASE OF PIXELITIS

This movie, Transcendence, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.

I'm sure a poster you see above is a Japanese version of it. It makes sense if you read it from right to left: Johnny Depp was first human, then he became his pixelated version.

Reading it from left to right means that Johnny Depp suffered from some skin condition. After he used a cosmetic product, his face went smooth, wrinkles disppeared. He was clearly worth it.

I think Transcendence will join a streak of mediocre movies of this year: loud in early buzz, but indifferent in a whole movie universe. Just like 300: Rise of an Empire, Noah, Need for Speed.

Shots:

$ 51 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 30,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 27,17 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3455 theaters, $ 7864 per theater)

$ 25 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 24,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 24 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 21 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 20,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 20,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 20 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 18,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 18 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

-----------------------------------------------

$ 10,89 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3455 theaters, $ 3151 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

2014 04 11 – Draft Day, Oculus, Rio 2

As usual with Marvel openings, I was the only one who didn't get right Captain America 2 (just as Iron Man 3, last year).

It is an other thing that bothers me. Even with its stellar reviews, Cap 2 opened below Man of Steel, that was a bad movie with Superman. How exactly is Marvel going to beat Batman vs Superman? If they count solely on the post-Avengers 2 effect -- similar to how The Avengers lifted Iron Man 3 -- sorry, that won't happen. I'm a fan, but it is just not that weight in popculture.

This weekend we have three openings.

WEDNESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

THE BIGGEST KICKS IN THE BALLS DON'T ALWAYS HAPPEN IN THE FIELD

This movie, Draft Day, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Summit / Lionsgate.

The only drama I see is a bill Mr. Costner had to pay before his face revitalising medical treatment. I assume this is kind of money he can't borrow from a bank by swaying his ID card or just smiling. He needs to get some paid gigs, no matter how bad they are.

Like this one, a drama without a drama. The lead character has to buy some players for his sport team. If he fails, he will be fired, of course. What then? Will he lose his self-esteem? His inner mojo? Will he turn to alcohol and fist fights for coins in a low bar, right by a train station? Or maybe he will sweat his silky shirt and shiny pants? It doesn't give us any fun to watch as the hero struggles and fights his way out of trouble. So my verdict is: I hope it will bomb.

Shots:

$ 22 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 13,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 13 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

$ 12,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 12 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 12 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 11,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 10,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 10,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9,78 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2781 theaters, $ 3518 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,62 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2781 theaters, $ 3100 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

DO THESE HANDS HIDE EYES OR BREASTS?

This movie, Oculus, is a horror R movie, from Relativity.

I smell Mama all over this movie. If you don't remember a surprise hit of last January, here is a short reminder:

* an emotional and easy to grasp concept

Mama: two girls lost in the woods were found and brought back to an uncle's marriage, brought back was also something else.

Oculus: siblings who witnessed murder of their parents are reunited after some years, they intend to find out what really happened that night -- and kill it good.

*  a strong woman's role

Mama: Jessica Chastain

Oculus: Karen Gillan

*  a climactic device of fear

Mama: a forest monster.

Oculus: an old mirror.

The only thing that differs two movies is an age restriction. On paper, PG-13s should do more money, because teens want to scare their friends. In reality, Rs do as much money.

I fell Mama's opening per theater of $ 10,730 is a bit too high this time, but a thousand less, $ 9700 per theater, is totally reachable.

Shots:

$ 25,69 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2648 theaters, $ 9700 per theater)
$ 15 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 14 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 13,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------

$ 13 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 13 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 13 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,01 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2648 theaters, $ 4534 per theater)

$ 11,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 11,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 11 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 9,7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier, didn't shoot for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------

IT'S BASICALLY MEET THE PARROTS

This movie, Rio 2, is an adventure G movie, from Fox.

The first Rio opened in 2011 with $ 10,250 per theater. It was not a great number for a kid movie, just an acceptable one. This one feels like a disguised movie for parents: Meet the Parents with birds -- and one lovely froggish Kristin Chenoweth -- instead of real people. Meaning: not funny at all worn jokes and cliches about overprotective dads, who can't process the fact that their daughters turn up with their kids already born and fine.

The movie is colorful enough to sway some kids, but it won't match -- no, Frozen, is totally beyond reach -- but a $ 10,000 per theater opening as well.

Shots:

$ 68 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 43,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 43 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 41 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 41 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 40 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 40 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 39,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 39,33 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3948 theaters, $ 9961 per theater)
$ 39 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 38,6 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 34,11 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3948 theaters, $ 8640 per theater)
$ 34 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

-----------------------------------------------
  
  

2014 04 04 – Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Ugh... That was a really close one. For both last weekend's Noah and Sabotage I went just outside of 10 per cent bracket. I'm glad, though, because it looks like I went back to a good shape in shooting. Looking forward for a coming summer season.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier is the only movie opening this weekend and the only summer-ish opening this April. And it opens in US this weekend. In my country it opened last Wednesday. I saw it twice, I liked it very much. I'd like more clashes between CA and TWS in the movie... but! It is really good entertainment, fits the grand design of Marvel's Phase 2 (which is to take from heroes their emotional and organisational support), and poses cool questions about The Avengers 2 -- how will they get all heroes together?).

THURSDAY:  My shot per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE BATTLE FOR $ 100 MLN OPENING

This movie, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, is an action PG-13 movie, from Disney.

Cap 2 has opened in a few countries in the world. Reactions and box office numbers are fantastic, what makes me think The Avengers' effect pulling people to theaters has ended. Building anticipation (and frustration) in American fans is certainly a good way to make an opening to remember.

How high can this opening be? Cap 2 probably won't break 4000 theaters, so $ 100 mln total is not set in stone. A level of interest in this movie I'd compare to Man of Steel's. That means $ 27,000 per theater should be made easily. How many more? I think not many. I'm settling for this number.

Shots:

$ 106,33 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3938 theaters, $ 27,000 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 101 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 98,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 97,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 97,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 97 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 95,02 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3938 theaters, $ 24,130 per theater)
$ 93 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 93 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 92,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 91 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 90 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 90 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 88,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

-----------------------------------------------