2014 05 30 – A Million Ways to Die in the West, Maleficent

This year's May was certainly a busy month. Weekend after weekend we got summer blockbusters: The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Neighbors, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past. They offered solid fun, although lacked finishing. They earned good money, although none of them broke $ 100 mln per weekend. I think people don't get into a sucker season yet. Maybe a reason is the weather, maybe people are busy working for the economy bump up. Either way, this trend should continue this weekend.

This weekend we have two openings.

WEDNESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

HOW DOES TED COUNT SHEEP WHEN FALLS ASLEEP? ONE -- I DID HER. TWO -- I DID HER. THREE, FOUR... NINETY-NINE, ONE HUNDRED

This movie, A Million Ways to Die in the West, is a comedy R movie, from Universal.

Ted on Wild West would be a hilarious movie. I totally see him on a poster: when the furry foocker makes things to sheep.

Seth Macfarlane is not Ted. He plays a different persona in this movie. He should hire Jesse Eisenberg to play him, that would be a great match. But as himself, he doesn't create comedic tension. He just isn't the guy.

Because of that, I don't see this movie reaching Ted's opening per theater. It may break $ 10,000, because it is summer and it looks like a safe date movie. But not much.

Shots:

$ 36,42 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3158 theaters, $ 11,533 per theater)
$ 31 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 30 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 29 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 28 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 28 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 28 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 27,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 26 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 25 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24 mln  --  JP Fallavollita, BiffBamPop
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,8 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3158 theaters, $ 5319 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 12 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

-----------------------------------------------

HOW REALLY BIG IS BRANGELINA'S FAMILY?

This movie, Maleficent, is an adventure PG movie, from Walt Disney.

I imagine Mrs. Jolie made this movie for their kids. It is really nice souvenir, as well as a vehicle to talk about heavy life stuff (girls' coming of age, for example).

The question is: why Disney approved this movie? How big they think is the family of Mrs. Jolie? I've heard some jokes about it, but the reality (and money coming into studio's pockets) are totally another thing. Maybe they planned to sell it through big promotional buzz? Snow White and the Huntsman succeeded this way, as well as Oz: the Great and Powerful. On the other hand, Jack the Giant Slayer failed. I think this fate will be placed upon this movie.

Unless I really understimate how big is Mrs. Jolie's family. I look forward to Monday's official numbers to find out.

Shots:

$ 69,43 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3948 theaters, $ 17,586 per theater)
$ 68,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 67 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 62 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 62 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 60,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 60 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 58,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 58 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 58 mln  --  JP Fallavollita, BiffBamPop
$ 55,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 55 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 55 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 54 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 20,19 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3948 theaters, $ 5114 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

2014 05 23 – Blended, X-Men: Days of Future Past

Summer is on, temperature is on, theaters with clima turn out to be a really enticing offer for a hot day. The movies don't interrupt a popcorn consumption, it's the best compliment I can pay them.

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

TUESDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

IT TAKES THE AFRICA TO GET OUT AN ANIMAL FROM A WIMPY DATE

This movie, Blended, is a comedy R movie, from Warner Bros.

I kind of like a concept of this movie: two people who don't get well with each other end up on a foreign trip. There are two BUTs, that could destroy this movie in terms of satisfaction and box office.

The first BUT aims at Drew Barrymore and Adam Sandler. With them the movie looks like a romantic comedy, though it is not. Instead, I can totally picture Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau. Or Kevin Hart and Eddie Murphy. You get the idea. The two we got don't promise as much laughs as two leads in a comedy should.

The second BUT aims directly at movies playing in theaters right now. The battlefield is crowded with four summer monsters (thank you for clapping), there is even a comedy R movie. Unless it is presented as a women's movie, showcasing Drew Barrymore and her character, it doesn't have a room to breathe.

After looking at numbers of Warner's comedy R movies from past years, I'm willing to give the movie some credit and set my number per theater in a safe space of $ 5,500 per theater.

Shots -- 3-day weekend:

$ 28,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 26 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 23 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 21 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 19,55 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3555 theaters, $ 5,500 per theater)
$ 16 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14,28 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3555 theaters, $ 4018 per theater)

Shots -- 4-day weekend:

$ 32 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 30 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 29 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 28,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 28 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25 mln  --  Box Office team
-----------------------------------------------
$ 19 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

$ 17,74 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3555 theaters, $ 4989 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

A NEXT CASE OF KHAN'S REVENGE SYNDROME?

This movie, X-Men: Days of Future Past, is an action PG-13 movie, from Fox.

I was the only shooter who got right last year's The Wolverine. My thoughts were then based on warm feelings for the team and for individual heroes as well.

For this movie, I feel the same pattern happens as happened for Star Trek Into Darkness. The first movie was better than okay, solid entertainment, introduction of new actors/actresses, respect for fans. The second movie was just okay. Safe choices regarding story. Zero trying to get new viewers in terms of Captain America: The Winter Soldier's quality. It looked like the studio decided to start milking the franchise, while it could still pull people into theaters.

Star Trek Into Darkness opened with $ 18,241 per theater, for a total of $ 70,56 mln. I see X-Men: Days of the Future Past getting a similar opening, maybe $ 1,000 more per theater, maybe $ 73-75 mln total. It depends on the exact number of theaters.

As a fan, I see more to the upcoming X-Men: Apocalypse than to this movie. It's a clear message, right? More mutant powers on screen, more intriguing clashes between powered characters, less philosophic debates.

Shots -- 3-day weekend:

$ 120 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 100,1 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 100 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
$ 98 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 96,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 96 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 95 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 90,83 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3996 theaters, $ 22,729 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 77,97 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3996 theaters, $ 19,511 per theater)

Shots -- 4-day weekend:

$ 129 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 125,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 125 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 119 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 117 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 115 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 115 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 110,58 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3996 theaters, $ 27,672 per theater)
$ 110 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

-----------------------------------------------

2014 05 16 – Godzilla, Million Dollar Arm

I didn't switched into a summer sucker season 2014 last weekend. I missed quite badly. But this weekend I don't have to avoid a perceived blockbuster. I think it is a good entertainment -- both of two openings, actually.

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

A MOVIE OF DESTRUCTION WITHOUT ANY VISUAL INTENSE SEQUENCE OF DESTRUCTION?

This movie, Godzilla, is an action PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.

The trailer for this movie looked a little scary. Godzilla reminded me of the first Alien: a movie crawling around the monster for more than a half of it. I can appreciate images of destructed cities, bridges, and buildings, but this is not a simple catastrophic movie. This is about THE MONSTER! And people want to see her destroying cities, bridges, and buildings. Not just afterward shoots from helicopter hovering over.

Fortunately, first opinions from social web say there DEFINITELY is a monster and she is very good looking. So I stopped being afraid about that.

Concerning shooting, I'm sure this movie will break $ 20,000 per theater. It is much bigger event than last year's Pacific Rim or World War Z. It may scratch The Amazing Spider-Man 2's per theater opening or even walk past it a bit. But not too much.

Shots:

$ 93,19 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3952 theaters, $ 23,580 per theater)
$ 87 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 86,72 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3952 theaters, $ 21,944 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 78 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 76 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 75 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 75 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 75 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 74 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 73 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 72,6 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 70 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 68 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 67,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 63,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave

-----------------------------------------------

HAVE YOU SEEN THIS MAN?

This movie, Million Dollar Arm, is a drama PG movie, from Walt Disney.

How one movie can have such different posters? The first one was surely made during a heavy sandstorm. The second one was made after (or before) the storm happened. The second one tells everything you need to know without words (excluding the really ugly tagline). The first one looks like a missing person poster.

Obviously, this movie stands no chance against Queen of Monsters (relax, I'm not talking about Oprah). But it is just a very nice movie, with high emotional stakes, new-found inner leadership, and love hidden in a garden by the side. I will see it as soon as I can, I'm sure I will have a great time.

I predict it to be better than this year's Draft Day, something about $ 4500 per theater.

Shots:

$ 16 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 16 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 16 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 15 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 14,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 14 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 13,62 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3019 theaters, $ 4512 per theater)
$ 13,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 13,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 12 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 12 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 11 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 11 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 10,52 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3019 theaters, $ 3483 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

2014 05 09 – Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return, Moms' Night Out, Neighbors

Here goes Spider-Man... here went Spider-Man. The reaction is like Okay, now let's meet Godzilla! Both great movies for 13 year-olds, both mild entertainment for more mature people.

This weekend we have three openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official numbers!

-----------------------------------------------

THIS IS MOVIE REQUIRES USING YOUR INTELLIGENCE: BECAUSE IT'S THE ELEMENT THAT DOESN'T MATCH

This movie, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return, is an adventure PG movie, from Clarius Entertainment.

In an intelligence test there is usually a question to choose one of elements that doesn't match with others. If a test aims at kids, there are: cabbage, onion, radish, and hippo. If a test aims at adults, there are: Lech Walesa, Queen Elizabeth II, Vladimir Putin, Fidel Castro. There are a few possible ways to solve it, the most obvious gender recognition is incorrect, of course.

I feel this movie the same way. It just doesn't match. Kids don't really remember old Oz movies. Though last year's Oz: the Great and Powerful was rated PG, it wasn't a movie targeting youngsters. It was thrown -- much like Dorothy herself -- into a world, where it is an unknown, uninvited, unwelcomed guest. It may acquire some dollars, but I predict it to be an average-low opening per theater.

By the way, the answer is Lech Walesa. In at least two ways.

Shots:

$ 12,29 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2641 theaters, $ 4655 per theater)
$ 10 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 7,7 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 7 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 5,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 5 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 4,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 4,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
-----------------------------------------------
$ 4 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 4 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 3,81 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2641 theaters, $ 1443 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 2,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

SaberToothDragon of BoxOfficeFrontier, Damon Houx of ScreenCrave, Andy Burns of BiffBamPop, didn't post shots for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------

THE MOST BUDDA-SPIRITUAL MOVIE OF THE YEAR

This movie, Moms' Night Out, is a comedy PG movie, from Sony.

What could go wrong? Asks a poster above. I say: everything. By this Budda-spiritual response, I'm pointing out this movie could be a beautiful comedy. Like this year's Ride Along, a little effort put into a comedic premise would pay off handsomely.

The basic idea is fish-out-of-water scenario: reasonable moms jump into street environment. At first they are lost, but finally they find out wits and courage to turn it around to their advantage.

Such simple premises were great 40 years ago. Now, we don't have great comedy actors, so we need a little more on the script side of the movie. What if the lead heroine in her youth was a member of a street gang? Or what if the lead heroine's school nemesis is now a lead of a street gang? Or if the school nemesis ends up in a similar situation: they need to work it out together?

Instead we've got a boring story at level 1, that doesn't feel real at level 2. People don't like such movies, last years ago this happened to Fun Size, The Guilt Trip, Hit and Run, Delivery Man, 21 and Over, Grudge Match. I predict the opening to be at a similar level, below $ 2000 per theater.

Shots:

$ 7 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 6,7 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 6 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 5,5 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 4,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 4,31 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1044 theaters, $ 4129 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 3,7 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 3,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 3 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 2,7 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 1,79 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1044 theaters, $ 1710 per theater)

SaberToothDragon of BoxOfficeFrontier, ThisIsNotMyName of BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Damon Houx of ScreenCrave, didn't post shots for this movie.

-----------------------------------------------

THIS IS THE END, BAD GRANDPA

This movie, Neighbors, is a comedy R movie, from Universal.

I don't like this movie, because I hate to get in a situation like this in real life: some jerk destroys peace of my family.

This makes doing a prediction quite easy. I can look at the box office potential without wanting it to perform good.

This movie looks like a crossing between last year's This is the End (young celebrities as lead characters, $ 6782 per theater) and Bad Grandpa (safety pillow jokes, $ 9609 per theater). Hovewer, my prediction isn't a median value of these two. First, either Rogen or Efron can't match Johnny Knoxville's passion. They are actors, not funny men. Second, the trailer tags Rogen's character as a victim only, without showing him retaliating at Efron's character. Great comics make fun of (tags as victims) themselves. Knoxville does it as Bad Grandpa, either physically (crushing windows) or emotionally (because funeral jokes break social laws of behavior, they are very uncomfortable to do). Efron's character is a plain bully, not a comic. That's why my per theater number is significantly lower than This is the End's one.

Shots:

$ 49,03 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3279 theaters, $ 14,954 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 41,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 41 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 40 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 39 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 38 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 38 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 38 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 37 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 37 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 36 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 35 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 35 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 34,1 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 20,48 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3279 theaters, $ 6247 per theater)

-----------------------------------------------

2014 05 02 – The Amazing Spider-Man 2

This weekend is big for two reasons. One: it opens the summer season of 2014, time when all movies get more money than they should. Two: the most buzz-blown movie of the year finally opens. We've been fed with photos, trailers, featurettes, for so long, but it is over! The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is on, now we can start counting up to another blockbuster -- Godzilla.

This weekend we have one opening.

FRIDAY:  My shots per theater!

and

FRIDAY: All shots!

MONDAY: Official number!

-----------------------------------------------

THE BIGGEST SUPERPOWER OF SPIDER-MAN IS A LACK OF NAUSEA

This movie, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, is an action PG-13 movie, from Sony.

Practically, we know everything about this movie. The only one thing left is Does Gwen really die?. Those who have already watched the movie, they know. The rest of us will find out this weekend or some time in future, when DVD will be released.

For now, let's enjoy a start of this summer season.

Shots:

$ 109,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 108 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 107,14 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (4324 theaters, $ 24,778 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 96 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 95 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 95 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 94 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 92,6 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 92 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 92 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 91,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (4324 theaters, $ 21,186 per theater)
$ 91 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 89,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 85,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 85 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

-----------------------------------------------