2014 01 31 – Labor Day, That Awkward Moment

I, Frankenstein didn't perform as planned. Instead going for a typical opening of a mindless but visually rich entertainment piece, it went for an opening of a bad movie. I don't have an explanation for this. One thing I'm sure, though: audience didn't learn to appreciate movies as they should. It would get a miracle to achieve that.

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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IF DANIELLE STEEL SLEPT WITH CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, SHE COULD WRITE THIS THE MORNING AFTER

This one, Labor Day, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Paramount.

Paramount has little experience in a field of dramas. If they do them, they hire a big name actor, like Leo di Caprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) or Denzel Washington (Flight). Both Brolin and Winslet are not that big names today. They are known enough I don't have to write their first names, still we all know who I am talking about. But they can't carry a whole movie to big bucks. I expect this movie to earn a low number.

Shots:

$ 11,7 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2584 theaters, $ 4526 per theater)
$ 11 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 9 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 6,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 6 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 5,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 5,18 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2584 theaters, $ 2003 per theater)
$ 5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 4,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 4 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't post the shot for this movie.

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LOVE CAN CHANGE A SELFISH MAN INTO A GOOD PERSON -- ALSO, BJ HELPS

This one, That Awkward Moment, is a com rom R movie, from Focus Features.

Com roms are always a tough nut to sell. In four years none of them broke the level of $ 3700 per theater. The thing is this is a genre targeting women mostly. On the other hand, the red R stamp slapped on the poster works like a repeller deodorant. Even Zac Efron can't beat it. Even two weeks before Valentine's Day.

Shots:

$ 17 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 15,1 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 14,5 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13,7 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 13 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 12,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 9,5 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2809 theaters, $ 3381 per theater)
$ 9,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 8,74 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2809 theaters, $ 3112 per theater)
$ 8 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

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2014 01 24 – I, Frankenstein

There is not a good explanation for the last weekend's openings. Obviously, people think Kevin Hart is a new Eddie Murphy and they don't cherish Tom Clancy as much as they used to.

This weekend we have one opening.

THURSDAY:  My shot per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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IF THOUSAND KIDS DON'T READ BOOKS IN SCHOOL, THEY'LL END UP BEING MOVIE PRODUCERS (AND/OR A WRITERS). THEN THE LORD'S WRATH WILL FALL UPON US

This one, I, Frankenstein, is a horror PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.

In 2010 there was a movie called Legion. Paul Bettany starred there, a person similar in appearance to Aaron Eckhart, the lead actor in this one.Legion was about an angel who protected a group of people from wiping them out of the Earth's surface by other angels. There were flying monstrosities, flying blades, flying guts... What movie am I writing about? Who cares. It's the same one. My shot is the same also.

Shots:

$ 19,71 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2753 theaters, $ 7150 per theater)
$ 19 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 16,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 16,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 16,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 15,3 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 15 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 15 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 11,2 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 8,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2753 theaters, $ 3128 per theater)
$ 8 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

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2014 01 17 – Devil's Due, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, Ride Along, The Nut Job

All movies of the previous weekend performed as planned: The Legend of Hercules bombed, Her didn't catch wide audience, Lone Survivor... This movie has lead the whole weekend on par with numbers in previous years. The second weekend of a year ALWAYS (in last 5 years) gathered $ 52-55 mln in openings. Lone Survivor didn't look that good in predictions, but this time statistics told truth. Next opportunity to check this out: in 53 weekends.

This weekend we have four openings.

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

TUESDAY:  Official numbers!  (since we have a long weekend with Monday)

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THE MOST CREEPY THING IN THE POSTER IS A BULB OVER A CHILD'S BED

This one, Devil's Due, is a horror R movie, from Fox.

In January horrors make nice money ($ 6000 per theater and higher). They are remakes (Texas Chainsaw 3D) or really good ideas (The Devil Inside, Mama), though. This one on a paper is a new franchise attempt. It also feels like a low budget mixture of The Conjuring, Insidious and The Last Exorcism 2 -- or the prequel to the first ever Omen. That means -- no crossing $ 10,000 per theater mark.

On the other hand, there is absolutely nothing fans of this genre can enjoy in theaters right now. I think it will drive the number up a bit.

Shots for 3 day weekend:

$ 15 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

$ 14,94 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2544 theaters, $ 5873 per theater)

$ 14 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

$ 12,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 12,5 mln  --  JP Fallavollita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop

$ 10 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

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$ 8,31 mln  --  the official 3-day weekend number of the movie  (2544 theaters, $ 3266 per theater)

$ 8,1 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 8 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 7,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

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Shots for 4 day weekend:

$ 14,7 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 14 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 11 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

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$ 9,15 mln  --  the official 4-day weekend number of the movie  (2544 theaters, $ 3266 per theater)

$ 8,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

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$ 8 mln  --  Box Office team

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't shoot for this one.

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I WONDER HOW DIFFICULT TO PLAY WERE AN UNDER-THE-SHEETS SCENES BETWEEN CHRIS PINE AND KEVIN COSTNER

This one, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, is an action PG-13 movie, from Paramount.

Statistics suggest we may broke $ 50 mln level again, after the last weekend. This movie should play a big part in it. I think it will break $ 10,000 per theater mark, and become the first surprise hit of the year, just like Mama did last year.

Shots for 3 day weekend:

$ 38,08 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3387 theaters, $ 11,243 per theater)

$ 28 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

$ 28 mln  --  JP Fallavollita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop

$ 27 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

$ 21 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 20,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave

$ 18,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 18,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 18 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

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$ 16 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 15,45 mln  --  the official 3-day weekend number of the movie  (3387 theaters, $ 4562 per theater)

Shots for 4 day weekend:

$ 24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 22,4 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 22 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 22 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 21 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 21 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

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$ 18,04 mln  --  the official 4-day weekend number of the movie  (3387 theaters, $ 5325 per theater)

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WHEN NAMES DON'T MATCH ACTORS, THERE IS A CASE OF WANDERING HEADS

This one, Ride Along, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Universal.

It could be a much better comedy, if brother was switched to father. A seasoned cop who pulls all kinds of tricks and calls favors from criminals to scare off a rookie who is dating his daughter -- good entertainment! Brother doing the same thing is just a jealous jerk, probably hiding a small genital complex.

It could a better comedy, if actors just switched their appearances -- just as I did on the altered poster above. Kevin Hart as a tough cop and Ice Cube as a rookie in love -- brilliant. Instead, we get comedy stereotypes at their worst.

Even that, this movie could pull some audience. Unfortunately, Jack Ryan rides along into theaters.

Shots for 3 day weekend:

$ 41,52 mln  --  the official 3-day weekend number of the movie  (2663 theaters, $ 15,590 per theater)

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$ 28,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 27 mln  --  JP Fallavollita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop

$ 26,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 26 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 23 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

$ 21,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 20 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 20 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

$ 18 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 12,88 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2663 theaters, $ 4836 per theater)

Shots for 4 day weekend:

$ 48,63 mln  --  the official 4-day weekend number of the movie  (2663 theaters, $ 18,260 per theater)

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$ 34 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 34 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 33,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

$ 31 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 26 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 24 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

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THE TAGLINE IS SEXIST, BECAUSE WOMEN TENNIS PLAYERS GET BIG CUPS AS WELL

This one, The Nut Job, is an adventure PG movie, from Open Road.

My first thought: it is like Escape from Planet Earth, from last year. $ 4800 per theater. Done.

My second thought: it could get worse. Since 2010, at this time of year no adventure PG movies opened. Four years' experience tells studios don't want to sink money in these movies. It's winter, end of semester, parents pay more attention if kids learn and read books, then if kids want to go to movies. We are all bored with Frozen in theaters, but possibly there is no real interest for that type of movies now. So I go with just over $ 3000 per theater.

Shots for 3 day weekend:

$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

$ 19,42 mln  --  the official 3-day weekend number of the movie  (3427 theaters, $ 5668 per theater)

$ 19 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

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$ 12,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 12 mln  --  JP Fallavollita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop

$ 11,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 10,58 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3427 theaters, $ 3088 per theater)

$ 10 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 10 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 9,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

Shots for 4 day weekend:

$ 25,70 mln  --  the official 4-day weekend number of the movie  (3427 theaters, $ 7499 per theater)

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$ 16,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 14 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 14 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 13,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

$ 13 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 11,4 mln  --  Box Office team

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't shoot this one.

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2014 01 10 – Her, Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules

This year started in the best way possible, by nailing the opening number of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. The upcoming weekend proposes a challenge, because all movies appear to open under $10 M. Precision will be worth its weight in gold.

This weekend we have three openings: two wide expansions and one pile of money wasted on its production.

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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OMG, JOAQUIN PHOENIX GOT SELLECKED

This one, Her, is a  drama R movie, from Warner Bros.

I'm really worried about this movie, because of Mr. Phoenix's eyes. They look as if he snorted snow-white cocain by two straws simultaneously, one in each nose-hole. They are so dull and emotionless. It's probably the same face he went when the producer told him about the script: You will be romancing with Scralett Johanson. But only her voice you hear in a telephone.

Mr. Selleck's eyes, on the other poster, look sharp, focused, engaged.

Or maybe it's the eyebrows... Too much correction destroys a manly appearance: as dog owners tell vets after small genital surgeries.

Shots:

$ 12,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 10,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 10,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 10 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 9,5 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 5,34 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1729 theaters, $ 3092 per theater)
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$ 4,06 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1729 theaters, $ 2346 per theater)

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, JP Fallavolita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.

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OMG, MARK WAHLBERG GOT DEL TOROED

This one, Lone Survivor, is an action R movie, from Universal.

If a premise tells a movie's resolution, it hurts drama tension. To regain audience's interest, writer(s) and director(s) need to spice up story or characters. Look at Final Destination series: we know all will die, but how they die and a lottery of who-dies-at-a-particular-scene -- that glues people back to their seats.

In the trailer of this movie, I didn't get any of that. I know (and you know, too) only Mr. Wahlberg's character will live when credits will roll on. The movies is placed in a jungle (not mighty jungle), probably Vietnam's or Korea's, during respective war activities. So, cross off any visual surprises in the kill department. I know -- from the first The Hunger Games -- that common cold and infections are more deadly than gun or bow. In entertainment, hovewer, I prefer more robust choices. This movie is like a Christmas for fans either military-survival, or Mr. Wahlberg. I show it in my shot by upping it a bit from a traditional crap level of $ 2500 per theater.

My shot per theater:

$ 37,85 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2876 theaters, $ 13,165 per theater)
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$ 26 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 23,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23 mln  --  JP Fallavolita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop
$ 22 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 21 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 20,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 18,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 17,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 11,08 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2876 theaters, $ 3854 per theater)

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IF YOU WANT TO WEAR A BODY ARMOR, YOU NEED TO GROW SOME ABs BEFORE

This one, The Legend of Hercules, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Summit/Lionsgate.

Sword-and-sandal is a great movie subgenre. It was very popular in 1960's. Lots of movies were made, about Hercules, even, but according to Wikipedia, they bore little resemblence to a source material.

This one feels just like that, with a substantially bigger budget to spend. Some nice views don't help, a bad lead actor destroys a nice story of forbidden love, betrayal, and revenge (classic of classic Greek myths).

If producers chose the way of Spartacus, meaning: more blood, more fights, more women in see-through robes, this movie could be a nice proposition. A modern audience is tired of modern cities, flat-cut grassfields, and cities' parks with paths made of stone cubes in shapes similar to ESP cards' symbols. A bit of sand in shoes could serve as a delicate detox. Unfortunately, it doesn't happen. I'm shooting for an opening on par with one of The Three Musketeers 3D (2001): $ 2875 per theater.

My shot per theater:

$ 16 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 11 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 8,87 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2104 theaters, $ 4215 per theater)
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 7,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 6,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6,05 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2104 theaters, $ 2875 per theater)
$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, JP Fallavolita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.

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2014 01 03 – Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones

From all fellow box office analysts, I root the most for Paramount's workers to get back from holiday. If only The Wolf of Wall Street makes another $ 100,000 total, I will hit it right in 10 per cent bracket and I will be the only one who does it.

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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IF TAGLINE WAS WRITTEN IN ALL CAPS, WOULD IT INSULT United States' LATINO CITIZENS?

This one, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, is a horror R movie, from Paramount.

In October 2012 we got Paranormal Activity 4. In October 2014 we will get Paranormal Activity 5. That makes this movie a spinoff from the main series and lowers audience's curiosity. Instead of a disturbed family, strange events touch a life of a young man. No more creative usage of a home appliance to evoke fear and suspense. It's like Final Destination series would introduce a personification of death who hunts characters down or Saw series where people are shot in heads by a hired gunman. Killings still happen, but all magic has gone. That's another lowering for me.

Also, the Latino angle didn't work out well for Rec 3, another horror that lost focus.

Due to all above arguments, my shot per theater is the lowest in the box office history of the Paranormal Activity series.

Shots:

$ 30 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 25,6 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 25,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 23 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 20 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 18,34 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2867 theaters, $ 6398 per theater)
$ 18 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 17,9 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 17,26 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2867 theaters' update, $ 6020 per theater)
$ 17 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 16,03 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 13 mln  --  BoxOffice team

Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't post shots this weekend.

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