2014 02 28 – Non-Stop, Son of God

Last week was my first perfect weekend in history of this (and last year's) blog. Not only I got 2 out of 2 shots right, in 10 per cent bracket, but also I (along with Ed Douglas of ComingSoon) predicted that 3 Days to Kill will top Pompeii. It was great. Still smiling about that :)

Also, shout out to Edward, who also scored the perfect weekend!

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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LOOKING AT THE POSTER MAKES ME DIZZY IN MY STOMACH

This one, Non-Stop, is an action PG-13 movie, from Universal.

Taken and Taken 2 were phenomenal thrillers. They felt like the good old action movies from 80's and 90's, that we were watching as kids. Good tension, high stake for a likable hero, good looking fights and shootings.

Non-Stop feels the same way. PG-13 rating (the same as Taken's) means youngers can go and see it freely, in their own company. If this movie gets more than $ 15,000 per theater, it will be a great example that in order to make money, you don't need superheroes. Ordinary heroes will do.

Shots:

$ 44,43 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3090 theaters, $ 14,378 per theater)
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$ 30 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 28,88 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3090 theaters, $ 9345 per theater)
$ 28,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 27,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 27 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers

$ 27 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

$ 26,7 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
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$ 25,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 25,4 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 25,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 24 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 20 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

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IF ACTORS PLAYING JESUS GET YOUNGER AND PRETTIER WITH EVERY MOVIE, IN HOW MANY YEARS THE ROLE WILL BE OFFERED TO JUSTIN BIEBER?

This one, Son of God, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Fox.

No movie about life, death and resurrection of Jesus Christ will top Mel Gibson's The Passion of the Christ. The movie is 10 years old, but still touches hearts of people with raw power of emotions and tearing kiss of iron nails grinding into jelly flesh-like substance during crucifixion.

I get that movies like this serve as a handy remainder for Christians. Especially now, when the time of Lent starts. I know that church trips have booked whole theater rooms. The question is: how many those trips will be? It's a total blank field for me. This movie can open with $ 6000, $ 12,000, as well as with $ 20,000 per theater. I'm going with $ 11,500, but I'm okay if it goes wrong.

Shots:

$ 37,49 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3260 theaters, $ 11,500 per theater)
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$ 27,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 25,6 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3260 theaters, $ 7853 per theater)
$ 25 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 21 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 20,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 20 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 19,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 18,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 18 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 15 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 14 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier

C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers, didn't shoot clearly for this movie.

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2014 02 21 – 3 Days to Kill, Pompeii

I was not amused at all watching About Last Night's Friday's fantastic rise to power, then Saturday's and Sunday's slips to mediocrity.

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

And... my perfect weekend: I have hit both movies right, in the 10 per cent bracket!

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IF AN ACCOUNTANT SLEPT WITH WAS A PRIEST, THEIR CHILD WOULD LOOK LIKE THIS

This one, 3 Days to Kill, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Relativity.

Obviously, producers want to cash in on Taken's glory. Bad news, folks: Taken got sequel, and the next week Mr. Neeson is going to reclaim his thriller crown.

I looked at historical numbers. Thrillers/suspenses rated PG-13 were tough to sell if not pinned to a recognizable face. Is Mr. Costner's such a face? I don't think so. I feel something about $ 4150 per theater.

Shots:

$ 17 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
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$ 13 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 12,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 12,24 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2872 theaters, $ 4263 per theater)
$ 12 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 11,92 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2872 theaters, $ 4150 per theater)
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$ 10,2 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 10 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 10 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 9 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 8,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8,1 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers  (just over 8)

Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.

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DO YOU KNOW THIS MOVIE IS A REMAKE OF AN UNKNOWN VIETNAMESE WAR MOVIE TITLED PHNOM PENHII?

This one, Pompeii, is a drama PG-13 movie, from FilmDistrict.

I see no reason to make this movie. I expect the opening close to The Legend of Hercules's, even a bit smaller.

Shots:

$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 21 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 13,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 12 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 11,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 11,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 11,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 10,8 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10,76 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2658 theaters, $ 4050 per theater)
$ 10,34 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2658 theaters, $ 3890 per theater)
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$ 9 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8,9 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers  (just under 9)

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't shoot for this one.

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2014 02 14 – About Last Night, Endless Love, Robocop, Winter's Tale

This weekend looks like the second weekend in a year, that can be predicted solely on statistics. In last four years movies opened in a $ 49-69 mln bracket. This year should be placed close to a high end of the bracket. If theater count is high enough, it can also break it to make a new record.

This weekend we have four openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

TUESDAY:  Official numbers!

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IN TWO YEARS, KEVIN HART WILL BE THE ONLY MOVIE COMIC ON THIS PLANET

This one, About Last Night, is a com rom R movie, from Sony.

I wasn't keen on a previous this year's Kevin Hart's movie, Ride Along. It was a weak comic setup, but Mr. Hart drove people to theaters. On this one, I am keen. Much of this should be acknowledged to makers of the first version of About Last Night, from 1986. They joined buddy comedy with romantic drama into a good movie.

I am a bit scared of Mr. Hart, though. In Ride Along he took on shoes of Eddie Murphy, and emerged victorious. In About Last Night he is targeting James Belushi's shoes. If this trend continues, in two years Kevin Hart will replace all other comics. Why risk hiring someone else, if you can pay Kevin and win big bucks?

For my prediction, I took Think Like A Man's opening, and lower it a bit due to R rating.

Shots Friday-Sunday:

$ 34,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 30,87 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2253 theaters, $ 13,700 per theater)
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$ 25,65 mln  --  the official Friday-Sunday weekend number of the movie  (2253 theaters, $ 11,384 per theater)
$ 25 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 25 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 24 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 23,7 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 19,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 19 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 16 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

Shots Friday-Monday:

$ 39 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 31 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 27,84 mln  --  the official Friday-Monday weekend number of the movie  (2253 theaters, $ 12,356 per theater)
$ 27 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 26,5 mln  --  Box Office team

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$ 25 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

$ 24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 22,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

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SOME MOVIES HAVE LOST THEIR MEANINGS IN 20 YEARS

This one, Endless Love, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Universal.

In 1981, the previous version was released. As it was written on the poster, every parent then feared his/her teen daughter would enter into a physical relationship with a few years older man. In 2014, you turn on tv and watch a reality show like Teen Mom or Pregnant Teens. Forbidden love ceased to be a reason to go to a cinema.

Shots Friday-Sunday:

$ 27 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 18,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 17 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 15 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
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$ 14,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 13,31 mln  --  the official Friday-Sundayweekend number of the movie  (2896 theaters, $ 4595 per theater)
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$ 11 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 6,82 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2896 theaters, $ 2355 per theater)
$ 4 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

Shots Friday-Monday:

$ 21 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 17 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 16,7 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 14,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon

$ 14,41 mln  --  the official Friday-Monday weekend number of the movie  (2896 theaters, $ 4975 per theater)
$ 14 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 13 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

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$ 5,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post his shot for this movie.

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CAN NSA SNEAK BACKDOOR INTO ROBOCOP'S SOFTWARE?

This one, Robocop, is an action PG-13 movie, from Sony.

It is another proof of movie concepts that lost their meaning. In 1987. computers and robots were perceived as enemies to mankind, dangerous toys to play. Now, IT industry is the most powerful in the world. Without them, our lives would be much less satisfying. If we are afraid of anything, it is politicians that could sneak into such robotic cops and take control over them. But robo-cops themselves? No big deal.

Shots Friday-Sunday:

$ 31 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 29,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 27 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 26 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 24 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 24 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
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$ 22,73 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3372 theaters, $ 6740 per theater)
$ 21,68 mln  --  the official Friday-Sunday weekend number of the movie  (3372 theaters, $ 6430 per theater)
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$ 19 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

Shots Friday-Monday:

$ 32 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 31 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 28 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 25,06 mln  --  the official Friday-Monday weekend number of the movie  (3372 theaters, $ 7432 per theater)
$ 25 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 19 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 17,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

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LOVE IS THE STRONGEST, IT CAN UNFREEZE EVEN COLIN FARRELL

This one, Winter's Tale, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Universal.

This movie also have a previous version. If you watch the trailer, you will know that some part of the movie takes place in early 1920s (something like that), another part takes place in modern times. It's like two movies joined in one, but any of them is interesting. Boy meets girl, they fall in love, she dies, he doesn't die at all and lives until today -- Endless Love is more interesting than this one.

Shots Friday-Sunday:

$ 24 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 12 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 9 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 8,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 7,3 mln  --  the official Friday-Sunday weekend number of the movie  (2965 theaters, $ 2461 per theater)
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$ 6,37 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2965 theaters, $ 2150 per theater)

Shots Friday-Monday:
$ 16 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 15 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 12,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 12 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 11 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 10,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 10 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 8,01 mln  --  the official Frida-Monday weekend number of the movie  ( theaters, $ 2700 per theater)

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't post his shot for this movie.

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2014 02 07 – The LEGO Movie, The Monuments Men, Vampire Academy

The last weekend was slow and not interesting. This weekend promises more fun: three movies for three different audiences, audiences somewhat alienated this year so far.

This weekend we have three openings.

WEDNESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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EVEN IN A MOVIE LIKE THIS, BATMAN IS WAY COOLER THAN SUPERMAN

This one, The LEGO Movie, is an adventure PG movie, from Warner Bros.

Sorry, this movie looks like a cheap try to get money from kids and parents to moviemakers. There is no tension, no adversary, no interesting lead character. Cameos from Batman and Morgan Freeman as Gandalf the White made me smile, but they can't handle the whole movie.

Unfortunately, for my sense of life balance, this movie can succeed in its mission. $ 10,000 per theater mark is out of the question, but a solid $ 8000+ per theater (Epic, Cloudy 2, Puss in Boots) is reachable.

Shots:

$ 69,05 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3775 theaters, $ 18,291 per theater)
$ 68 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 62,4 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 57 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 55 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 53 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 53 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 48,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 48 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 47,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 47,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 44 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 40 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 35 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 32,09 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3775 theaters, $ 8500 per theater)

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HOW MANY WORDS DID BILL MURRAY TELL IN THE TRAILER?

This one, The Monuments Men, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Sony.

This movie bears the same issues as the one above: there is no sense of danger for characters. Actors displayed on the poster fight Nazis, but in the trailer there is hardly any shot of actual fight with Hitler's soldiers. Explosions, war planes (no bombs, though), landing on a beach (yawn): all war cliches got checked. If only there was a general brimmed with hate towards paintings, because in his youth some Austrian street painter tried to harass buy him an ice cream... This movie could be awesome, but it looks ordinary.

Shots:

$ 22,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 22 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3083 theaters, $ 7137 per theater)
$ 21 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 20,5 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 19 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 19 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 18,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 18 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 18 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 16,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 16,34 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3083 theaters, $ 5300 per theater)
$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

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IF YOU'RE A GIRL WHO GREW UP ON MONSTER HIGH -- THIS IS LEVEL TWO

This one, Vampire Academy, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Weinstein.

The uber-motif of this weekend is: missed chances. All three movies could be really a sweet entertaining, but all of them didn't get to the promised land of cinema fun. This one has the same symptoms -- no adversary -- and on top of that, its genre is totally wrong.

Official statement tells it is a drama movie. The trailer screams: comedy. A sassy heroine who is human joins a school of vampires: not so typical fish-out-of-the-water scenario! Sure, there are some teen disturbing images (woman in bikini, biting on a neck), but I bet it is not worse than reality show about teen moms. Jokes are fast and snappy, fight scenes look cool enough, all heroes are attractive enough.

Last year we got Warm Bodies, a movie that tried to blend horror and comedy. I liked it from the trailer. Here I don't have as warm feelings, but I think the money per theater will be on a similar level.

Shots:

$ 18 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17,66 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2676 theaters, $ 6600 per theater)
$ 16 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 10,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 8,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 7,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 7,4 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 6,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 6,6 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 6 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
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$ 3,92 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2676 theaters, $ 1466 per theater)

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post his shot for this one.

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