2014 03 28 – Noah, Sabotage

The whole world longs for spring and summer. Most people just want to throw their warm furs in closets and jump in Hawaiian shorts. The movie industry feels the same way: they want to move from winter's low openings into a summer blockbuster season.

This is the last weekend before that. Captain America: The Winter Soldier opens in 7 days, he will drive a lot of money. For now, we got another Russell Crowe movie.

This weekend we have two openings.

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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AN ECHO EFFECT -- THE BEST CAREER ARK AN ACTOR CAN GET

This one, Noah, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Paramount.

I don't dig a Russell Crowe phenomenon.

I don't like 2000's Gladiator, and 2001's A Beautiful Mind, both showered with Oscars at the respective year.

I like him in 2003's Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. His performance as Captain Jack Aubrey was very good. Convincing. Robust.

Since then, Mr. Crowe seems to me like he's played the same card with every movie. He is not felt as such in the same way as Nicholas Cage (Mr. Cage does always play Nicholas Cage, just with different hair). But the same rule applies.

Looking at Mr. Crowe's career, Noah should end up in the same field as 2010's Robin Hood. I don't approve it, but this is movie industry reality.

Shots:

$ 50 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 49 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
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$ 43,72 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3567 theaters, $ 12,257 per theater)
$ 41 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 40 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 38,84 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3567 theaters, $ 10,890 per theater)
$ 38,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 37,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 37 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 36,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 36 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 35,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 34 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 29,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave

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YOUR CAREER ECHO IS FADING -- HOW DO YOU SAY IT IN AUSTRIAN?

This one, Sabotage, is an action R movie, from Open Road.

I think I know why all recent Schwarzenegger, Stallone, Willis movies, went downhill in box office money.

They are all old people now.

Let me explain.

If you want to see a great action piece, fighting, stunts, who you gonna call? Here are choices:
*  a 46 year-old,
*  a 41 year-old,
*  a 59, a 66, a 67 year-olds?

Or, as they are known to the world:
*  Vin Diesel,
*  Dwayne Johnson,
*  Bruce Willis, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sylvester Stallone?

If I want to see Terminator, Arnie will always be the first choice. Same goes with John McClane, Rocky, Rambo, respectively.

But in other movies, playing other people, they stand no chance. It's a natural state of things. That's why I shoot low.

Shots:

$ 14 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 8,7 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 8,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 8,2 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 7,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7,8 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 7 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 6,18 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2486 theaters, $ 2486 per theater)
$ 6 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 5,27 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2486 theaters, $ 2121 per theater)


Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't post his shoot for this movie.

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2014 03 21 – Divergent, Muppets Most Wanted

I'm the Immortal. There can be only one. Who predicted something right last weekend.

But I would trade it in a second for a better opening for The Single Moms Club. I'm completely shocked by that low number. Is it buying a ticket for this movie an equivocal acknowledgement of being a single mom? Is it really any shame in that, at least in US? The only rational explanation would be if studio cut all marketing expenses. It could happen, since number of theaters was low (1896 only), but I think a right message placed in a few women's magazines would do very well pulling an audience.

This weekend we have two openings.

FRIDAY:  All shots! Including mine!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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WHY FEMINISTS DON'T TRASH THIS MOVIE? IT'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WOMAN WHO FEELS SPECIAL BUT NEEDS A MAN TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT

This one, Divergent, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate/Summit.

This movie can prove an interesting thesis on how much money movies make based on a number of theaters they open into.

Here is data from last two years:

Beautiful Creatures                                 --  2950 theaters, $   2,471 per theater
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones   --  3118 theaters, $   2,995 per theater
The Host                                                  --  3202 theaters, $   3,310 per theater
Snow White and the Huntsman               --  3773 theaters, $ 14,900 per theater
Divergent                                                 --  3936 theaters, $ 13,874 per theater
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2     --  4070 theaters, $ 34,661 per theater
The Hunger Games                                 --  4137 theaters, $ 36,871 per theater
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire         --  4163 theaters, $ 37,971 per theater

Snow White breaks the pattern, also it is not really Young Adult stuff. I've cut it out.

I'm loss for words myself. Numbers for The Hunger Games are just amazing.

Divergent opens in 3936 theaters. Taking changes in numbers as linear, it should make something about $ 25,000 per theater. Which looks almost impossible.

But if these numbers are grouped in three levels (level 1 is crap under 3500 theaters, level 2 is a medium one with 3500-3900 theaters, level 3 is big hit over 4000 theaters), then Divergent is right at the breaking point, but still on a medium side of it. This would mean it would make about $ 18,000-$ 20,000 per theater.

This looks more likely.

Although, I still feel this movie as a sequel to The Host, in terms of the story and visual appealing. Ok, maybe it is a bit better, because for me, Kate Winslet is hotter than Diane Kruger.

But it is my second year of predicting movies. I've learned to trust historical numbers. I go with $ 16,900 per theater.

Shots:

$ 81 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 69 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 66,52 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3936 theaters, $ 16,900 per theater)
$ 66 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 63,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 62,1 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
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$ 60 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 58,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 58 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 54,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3936 theaters, $ 13,874 per theater)
$ 53,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 53 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 53 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 51 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, didn't post her shoot for this one.

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MUPPETS SHOULD GO BACK IN TIME AND STAY THERE

This one, Muppets Most Wanted, is a comedy PG movie, from Disney.

The Smurfs 2. Lots of posters and advertising. $ 4539 per theater. Why? Because it was a movie no one really wanted.

I feel these Muppets the same way.

Don't get me wrong -- I love Muppets. I grew watching The Muppet Show, crazy Gonzo, wild Animal, amusing Fozzie, two geezers in a balcony, even if 90 per cent of guests were totally unknown to me. I liked The Muppets Tonight, with modern actors and actresses.

The point is Muppets were never really aimed at children. Take the Swedish Cook segment. Take the sketch about the lost art of discussing. Take geezers's comic meanness towards Fozzie -- with a classic 'Your last joke was the best one. Why? Because it was the last one!' (I quote from memory). It is definitely not a humor for kids. Thinking of it, I can recall another show just like The Muppets: Beetlejuice. Not for kids, but for teens with a twisted sense of humor.

The first The Muppets movie opened in 2011, in 3440 theaters, for $ 8500 per theater. This sequel will make less. I think $ 6400 is ok.

Shots:

$ 35 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 27,6 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 27 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 27 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 26,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 26 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 25,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 25 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 20,44 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3194 theaters, $ 6400 per theater)
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$ 17,00 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3194 theaters, $ 5324 per theater)

Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, didn't post her shoot for this one.

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2014 03 14 – Need for Speed, The Single Moms Club

Last week I was off the predictions again. This time by 40 per cent. I am able to understand why 300: Rise of an Empire got that high: Warner's promotion money were spent good. But Mr. Peabody & Sherman? Do kids really need Frozen-detox that much? Strange things happen.

A shout out to Edward Douglas of ComingSoon, who scored another perfect weekend! Good job!

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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IT WOULDN'T BE MORE MISMATCHELY ELEVATED IF MORGAN FREEMAN VOICEOVERED THE LEAD CHARACTER

This one, Need for Speed, is an action PG-13 movie, from Disney.

I see red flags all over this movie. An unknown actor plays the lead character. Cars smell they are on a lease from the nearest dealer, and they must go back at 10 pm unscratched. No real car action in the trailer. No babes in high heels walking around cars.

And horribly mismatched voiceover of the lead character. He sounds Irish, like a seasoned Irish bar brawler. His eyes shine blue nitro, though, that gives a vibe I-don't-belong-here.

Also, only 3115 theaters's managers decided to grab a copy to show. Last year's Fast & Furious 6 made into 3658 theaters. Meaning: managers don't feel Need for Speed is at the same level as Fast franchise.

The only good thing about this movie is Dominic Cooper. He looks good, but again, doesn't really blend into the movie's concept.

I think this one will open with $ 5000-6000 per theater.

Shots:

$ 30 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 27,2 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 27 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 25,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 24 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 23,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 23 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 23 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 23 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 22 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 17,85 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3115 theaters, $ 5729 per theater)
$ 17,48 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3115 theaters, $ 5610 per theater)

Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't post his shot.

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THE BEST MOVIE OF THE YEAR, SO FAR

This one, Tyler Perry's The Single Moms Club, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.

Last year I shot Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor right. I thought it was a great movie for a girls-only night out. This movie is even better. Why? It appeals to all women, no matter what make-up they wear. It appeals to all single moms who feel underappreciated. And it does that with confidence (no tip-toeing) and charm.

In 2012 Think Like a Man reached $ 16,6694 per theater opening. I want this one to break $ 20,000 per theater. It truly deserves.

Shots:

$ 40,49 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1896 theaters, $ 21,357 per theater)
$ 22 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 21 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 19 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,4 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 17,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 17 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 16 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 16 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14,5 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 10 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 8,08 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1896 theaters, $ 4259 per theater)

Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't post his shot.

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2014 03 07 – 300: Rise of an Empire, Mr. Peabody & Sherman

We are two months in this year. 22 movies opened wide, the best predicters shot 6 of them right -- they are Edward Douglas of ComingSoon, Mitch Metcalf of ShowBuzzDaily. I shot 5 right.

Last year, at this point, there were 21 movies,  the best score was 8, I made 6 shots right. It means this year started a bit harder, movies' openings were trickier to predict.

But March was a great month, I got the best score (5 out of 15). I look forward to this year's March's openings.

This weekend we have two of them.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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THE BEST MOVIE EVER: LENA HEADEY AND VIN DIESEL READ A TELEPHONE BOOK

This one, 300: Rise of an Empire, is an action R movie, from Warner Bros.

I love Lena's voice in the opening of the trailer. Her voice is low, velvet and firm, but not harsh. I felt the same shiver of pleasure as during the opening of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. Vin Diesel's voice owns the same quality for women.

The original 300's success has been made thanks to a single meme, This is Sparta! This time, we don't get any of it. This movie is just a colorful slideshow of violence suited for teen boys. R-rating means it serves as a forbidden fruit, the same way as 20 years ago we were glued to a TV screen with Rambo and Delta Force on. I don't think it will break $ 10,000 per theater level, but it will be higher than Sucker Punch's $ 6284 per theater, a movie favorably omitted from Zack Snyder's portfolio that was placed into the trailer. What is the reason? Commercial success of such TV series as The Walking Dead, Game of Thrones, Spartacus, Vikings, Black Sails. R-rated audience is now recognised as a strong source of income. Of course, the audience of Game of Thrones will not find any political twists in 300: Rise of an Empire. But blood and steel factor should pull younger part of it.

Shots:

$ 49 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 45,04 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3470 theaters, $ 12,979 per theater)
$ 44,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 42,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 41,3 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
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$ 40 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 40 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 39 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 36,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 33 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 33 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 29,8 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 28,26 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3470 theaters, $ 8144 per theater)
$ 28 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

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IN A BACKGROUND, IS IT A GHOST OF TINTIN?

This one, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.

A movie targeting smart kids, rather than all kids, is a tough sell. The Adventures of Tintin, a similar movie, opened with just $ 3149 per theater, three years ago.

A movie involving time travel, also plays to its disadvantage. Movies with such a creative element usually open around $ 20 mln. The higher number is reached only if there is a star attached to a movie: like Arnold Schwarzenegger in Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, Will Smith in Men in Black 3, Adam Sandler in Click. I go with $ 4900 per theater, that is just over last year's Escape from Planet Earth.

Shots:

$ 45,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 40 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 37,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 35 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32,21 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3934 theaters, $ 8187 per theater)
$ 32 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 31,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 31 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 31 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 30 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
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$ 28 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 25 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 25 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop

$ 23 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 19,28 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3934 theaters, $ 4900 per theater)

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