Thursday, May 22, 2014

2014 05 23 – Blended, X-Men: Days of Future Past

Summer is on, temperature is on, theaters with clima turn out to be a really enticing offer for a hot day. The movies don't interrupt a popcorn consumption, it's the best compliment I can pay them.

This weekend we have two openings.

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY: All shots!

TUESDAY: Official numbers!

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IT TAKES THE AFRICA TO GET OUT AN ANIMAL FROM A WIMPY DATE

This movie, Blended, is a comedy R movie, from Warner Bros.

I kind of like a concept of this movie: two people who don't get well with each other end up on a foreign trip. There are two BUTs, that could destroy this movie in terms of satisfaction and box office.

The first BUT aims at Drew Barrymore and Adam Sandler. With them the movie looks like a romantic comedy, though it is not. Instead, I can totally picture Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau. Or Kevin Hart and Eddie Murphy. You get the idea. The two we got don't promise as much laughs as two leads in a comedy should.

The second BUT aims directly at movies playing in theaters right now. The battlefield is crowded with four summer monsters (thank you for clapping), there is even a comedy R movie. Unless it is presented as a women's movie, showcasing Drew Barrymore and her character, it doesn't have a room to breathe.

After looking at numbers of Warner's comedy R movies from past years, I'm willing to give the movie some credit and set my number per theater in a safe space of $ 5,500 per theater.

Shots -- 3-day weekend:

$ 28,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 26 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 23 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 21 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 19,55 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3555 theaters, $ 5,500 per theater)
$ 16 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 14,28 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3555 theaters, $ 4018 per theater)

Shots -- 4-day weekend:

$ 32 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 30 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 29 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 28,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 28 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 19 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17,74 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3555 theaters, $ 4989 per theater)

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A NEXT CASE OF KHAN'S REVENGE SYNDROME?

This movie, X-Men: Days of Future Past, is an action PG-13 movie, from Fox.

I was the only shooter who got right last year's The Wolverine. My thoughts were then based on warm feelings for the team and for individual heroes as well.

For this movie, I feel the same pattern happens as happened for Star Trek Into Darkness. The first movie was better than okay, solid entertainment, introduction of new actors/actresses, respect for fans. The second movie was just okay. Safe choices regarding story. Zero trying to get new viewers in terms of Captain America: The Winter Soldier's quality. It looked like the studio decided to start milking the franchise, while it could still pull people into theaters.

Star Trek Into Darkness opened with $ 18,241 per theater, for a total of $ 70,56 mln. I see X-Men: Days of the Future Past getting a similar opening, maybe $ 1,000 more per theater, maybe $ 73-75 mln total. It depends on the exact number of theaters.

As a fan, I see more to the upcoming X-Men: Apocalypse than to this movie. It's a clear message, right? More mutant powers on screen, more intriguing clashes between powered characters, less philosophic debates.

Shots -- 3-day weekend:

$ 120 mln  --  Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 100,1 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 100 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 98 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 96,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 96 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 95 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 90,83 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3996 theaters, $ 22,729 per theater)
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$ 77,97 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (3996 theaters, $ 19,511 per theater)

Shots -- 4-day weekend:

$ 129 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 125,4 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 125 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 119 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 117 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 115 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 115 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 110,58 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3996 theaters, $ 27,672 per theater)
$ 110 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

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