This weekend we have three openings.
THURSDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
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This movie, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return, is an adventure PG movie, from Clarius Entertainment.
In an intelligence test there is usually a question to choose one of elements that doesn't match with others. If a test aims at kids, there are: cabbage, onion, radish, and hippo. If a test aims at adults, there are: Lech Walesa, Queen Elizabeth II, Vladimir Putin, Fidel Castro. There are a few possible ways to solve it, the most obvious gender recognition is incorrect, of course.
I feel this movie the same way. It just doesn't match. Kids don't really remember old Oz movies. Though last year's Oz: the Great and Powerful was rated PG, it wasn't a movie targeting youngsters. It was thrown -- much like Dorothy herself -- into a world, where it is an unknown, uninvited, unwelcomed guest. It may acquire some dollars, but I predict it to be an average-low opening per theater.
By the way, the answer is Lech Walesa. In at least two ways.
Shots:
$ 12,29 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014 (2641 theaters, $ 4655 per theater)
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 7,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 5,5 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 5 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 4,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 4,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
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$ 4 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 4 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 3,81 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2641 theaters, $ 1443 per theater)
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$ 2,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
SaberToothDragon of BoxOfficeFrontier, Damon Houx of ScreenCrave, Andy Burns of BiffBamPop, didn't post shots for this movie.
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THE MOST BUDDA-SPIRITUAL MOVIE OF THE YEAR
This movie, Moms' Night Out, is a comedy PG movie, from Sony.
What could go wrong? Asks a poster above. I say: everything. By this Budda-spiritual response, I'm pointing out this movie could be a beautiful comedy. Like this year's Ride Along, a little effort put into a comedic premise would pay off handsomely.
The basic idea is fish-out-of-water scenario: reasonable moms jump into street environment. At first they are lost, but finally they find out wits and courage to turn it around to their advantage.
Such simple premises were great 40 years ago. Now, we don't have great comedy actors, so we need a little more on the script side of the movie. What if the lead heroine in her youth was a member of a street gang? Or what if the lead heroine's school nemesis is now a lead of a street gang? Or if the school nemesis ends up in a similar situation: they need to work it out together?
Instead we've got a boring story at level 1, that doesn't feel real at level 2. People don't like such movies, last years ago this happened to Fun Size, The Guilt Trip, Hit and Run, Delivery Man, 21 and Over, Grudge Match. I predict the opening to be at a similar level, below $ 2000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 7 mln -- Box Office team
$ 6,7 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 6 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 5,5 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 5 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 4,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 4,31 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (1044 theaters, $ 4129 per theater)
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$ 3,7 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 3,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 3 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 2,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 1,79 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014 (1044 theaters, $ 1710 per theater)
SaberToothDragon of BoxOfficeFrontier, ThisIsNotMyName of BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Damon Houx of ScreenCrave, didn't post shots for this movie.
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THIS IS THE END, BAD GRANDPA
This movie, Neighbors, is a comedy R movie, from Universal.
I don't like this movie, because I hate to get in a situation like this in real life: some jerk destroys peace of my family.
This makes doing a prediction quite easy. I can look at the box office potential without wanting it to perform good.
This movie looks like a crossing between last year's This is the End (young celebrities as lead characters, $ 6782 per theater) and Bad Grandpa (safety pillow jokes, $ 9609 per theater). Hovewer, my prediction isn't a median value of these two. First, either Rogen or Efron can't match Johnny Knoxville's passion. They are actors, not funny men. Second, the trailer tags Rogen's character as a victim only, without showing him retaliating at Efron's character. Great comics make fun of (tags as victims) themselves. Knoxville does it as Bad Grandpa, either physically (crushing windows) or emotionally (because funeral jokes break social laws of behavior, they are very uncomfortable to do). Efron's character is a plain bully, not a comic. That's why my per theater number is significantly lower than This is the End's one.
Shots:
$ 49,03 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3279 theaters, $ 14,954 per theater)
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$ 41,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 41 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 40 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 39 mln -- Box Office team
$ 38 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 38 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 38 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 37 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 37 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 36 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 35 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 34,1 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 20,48 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014 (3279 theaters, $ 6247 per theater)
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