2014 01 10 – Her, Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules

This year started in the best way possible, by nailing the opening number of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. The upcoming weekend proposes a challenge, because all movies appear to open under $10 M. Precision will be worth its weight in gold.

This weekend we have three openings: two wide expansions and one pile of money wasted on its production.

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

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OMG, JOAQUIN PHOENIX GOT SELLECKED

This one, Her, is a  drama R movie, from Warner Bros.

I'm really worried about this movie, because of Mr. Phoenix's eyes. They look as if he snorted snow-white cocain by two straws simultaneously, one in each nose-hole. They are so dull and emotionless. It's probably the same face he went when the producer told him about the script: You will be romancing with Scralett Johanson. But only her voice you hear in a telephone.

Mr. Selleck's eyes, on the other poster, look sharp, focused, engaged.

Or maybe it's the eyebrows... Too much correction destroys a manly appearance: as dog owners tell vets after small genital surgeries.

Shots:

$ 12,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 10,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 10,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 10 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 9,5 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 5,34 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1729 theaters, $ 3092 per theater)
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$ 4,06 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (1729 theaters, $ 2346 per theater)

ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, JP Fallavolita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.

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OMG, MARK WAHLBERG GOT DEL TOROED

This one, Lone Survivor, is an action R movie, from Universal.

If a premise tells a movie's resolution, it hurts drama tension. To regain audience's interest, writer(s) and director(s) need to spice up story or characters. Look at Final Destination series: we know all will die, but how they die and a lottery of who-dies-at-a-particular-scene -- that glues people back to their seats.

In the trailer of this movie, I didn't get any of that. I know (and you know, too) only Mr. Wahlberg's character will live when credits will roll on. The movies is placed in a jungle (not mighty jungle), probably Vietnam's or Korea's, during respective war activities. So, cross off any visual surprises in the kill department. I know -- from the first The Hunger Games -- that common cold and infections are more deadly than gun or bow. In entertainment, hovewer, I prefer more robust choices. This movie is like a Christmas for fans either military-survival, or Mr. Wahlberg. I show it in my shot by upping it a bit from a traditional crap level of $ 2500 per theater.

My shot per theater:

$ 37,85 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2876 theaters, $ 13,165 per theater)
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$ 26 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 23,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23 mln  --  JP Fallavolita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop
$ 22 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 21 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 20,5 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 18,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 17,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 11,08 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2876 theaters, $ 3854 per theater)

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IF YOU WANT TO WEAR A BODY ARMOR, YOU NEED TO GROW SOME ABs BEFORE

This one, The Legend of Hercules, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Summit/Lionsgate.

Sword-and-sandal is a great movie subgenre. It was very popular in 1960's. Lots of movies were made, about Hercules, even, but according to Wikipedia, they bore little resemblence to a source material.

This one feels just like that, with a substantially bigger budget to spend. Some nice views don't help, a bad lead actor destroys a nice story of forbidden love, betrayal, and revenge (classic of classic Greek myths).

If producers chose the way of Spartacus, meaning: more blood, more fights, more women in see-through robes, this movie could be a nice proposition. A modern audience is tired of modern cities, flat-cut grassfields, and cities' parks with paths made of stone cubes in shapes similar to ESP cards' symbols. A bit of sand in shoes could serve as a delicate detox. Unfortunately, it doesn't happen. I'm shooting for an opening on par with one of The Three Musketeers 3D (2001): $ 2875 per theater.

My shot per theater:

$ 16 mln  --  SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 11 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 8,87 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2104 theaters, $ 4215 per theater)
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 7,8 mln  --  Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 7 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 6,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6,05 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2014  (2104 theaters, $ 2875 per theater)
$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart

Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, JP Fallavolita (substituting Andy Burns), BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.

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